53 Law Schools Accredited by the ABA Since 1970

And, a Decade of Added Capacity 

No Longer Needed?

Yesterday, I linked to the ABA report showing the drop in applicants who actually enrolled in law school in 2013. By one blogger's calculation, enrollment (average per law school) has not been this low since the late 1960s.

The ABA Journal reported:

Law school enrollments nationwide are down 11 percent this year from last year and 24 percent from 2010, new figures show. 

The nation’s 202 ABA-accredited schools reported that 39,675 full- and part-time students were enrolled in a first-year J.D. program this fall, according to figures released Tuesday by the ABA Section of Legal Education and Admissions to the Bar. 

That’s a decrease of 4,806 students from the fall of 2012, when 44,481 students began their law school studies, and a decrease of 12,813 students from 2010, when an all-time high of 52,488 first-year students were enrolled in an ABA-accredited school.

(Emphasis added.)  In a more recent article, the ABA explains that:  "The last time enrollment was so low was in 1975, when 39,038 students were enrolled. And, at the time, there were only 163 ABA-accredited schools."

Since 1970, the ABA has accredited 53 new law schools of the current total of 202 ABA-approved J.D.-conferring law schools.  It also granted provisional accreditation to four more schools (Belmont, La Verne, U. Mass-Dartmouth, and U. Cal-Irvine) in 2011 to 2013.

In addition, Duncan School of Law at Lincoln Memorial University in Tennessee currently seeks provisional accreditation along with a few more new law schools.  Oddly, I can't find additional information about the schools seeking provisional accreditation, except for Duncan, which had a very public denial of its application for provisional accreditation by the ABA in a December 2011 order and a lot of negative blogger coverage here, here, here, and here.

The ABA began accrediting law schools in 1923.  That year it approved 40 schools, including well-established private schools -- like Harvard, Yale and Washington & Lee -- and a number of state-sponsored law schools, many of which are associated with land-grant universities.

Too Much Capacity

I guess what I am trying to say is that the ABA approved a lot of law school "capacity" since 1970.  In the last decade, it granted accreditation -- full or provisional -- to 16 law schools.

Assuming those 16 new schools expected to have a student population of about 300 law students, the ABA created capacity for 4,800 more students. Many of the new schools -- especially the for-profit schools, including Charlotte, Arizona Summit (formerly Phoenix), Charleston (soon to join the Infilaw family), and Atlanta's John Marshall -- hope to have substantially larger classes to meet their profit expectations.

Thus, the drop in enrollees seen just in 2013 wiped out the need for all the capacity added over the last decade.  Current trends suggest that the ABA should not accredit any more law schools.

December 20, 2013 Update:  Commentary on the current market situation for law schools here.

Dec. 21, 2013 Update:  And this statement, nestled in a broader discussion of the revolution happening in the legal field:

If you want an example, take a look at law schools. You’re probably aware that applications to US law schools have been dropping like a stone and that enrolment is now down to itslowest level since 1977. As Bruce MacEwen notes (and as I’ve been saying for some time now), this story has only one ending: many American law schools will close or will become so small as to turn into veritable cottage businesses. There’s no question that there are too many law schools providing too little value to their students and to the clients they’ll someday struggle to serve, and that a major correction is overdue here. There’s also a lot of schadenfreude throughout the profession right now as these schools wriggle on the hook. 

We can hope for and work towards a renaissance and reinvention of law school. But what if that fails? What if 80% of US law schools close and are not replaced? Will the profession and the public be well served by a legal education system that features Harvard, Yale, Stanford and a few other clones, and nobody else? Or what if the failed law schools are followed by profiteering private law degree factories that replace the passive academic lecture with cookie-cutter “practical training” packages bereft of jurisprudence and professionalism? I think this is an unlikely outcome. But it is a possible outcome — a possibility that didn’t exist 10 years ago, but does today.

Jan. 1, 2014 Update:  This National Law Journal 2013-in-review summary spoke to the issue of new law schools:

9. MORE NEW SCHOOLS 

Think plummeting demand for a law degree would put the brakes on plans to open new schools? Think again. The Indiana Tech Law School in August opened the doors to its new $15 million building in Fort Wayne. The school didn't meet its initial enrollment goal of 100 students — the inaugural class comprises 32 — but its dean has expressed optimism about the future. Meanwhile, administrators at the University of North Texas at Dallas are moving forward with plans to open the long-discussed UNT Dallas College of Law next fall; the school is now accepting applications.

Jan. 3, 2014 Update:  Prof. Debbie Merritt offers here her assessment of whether existing law schools will close in light of the current fall off in applications to law school.

Smallest Entering Law School Class (Average Per School) Since the 60's

Big Drop in Law School 

Enrollees

So the big story this week is the significant drop in enrollees in law school. In other postings here and here, I've tracked the drop in applicants and applications.

The ABA has finally released a report showing the drop in the number of applicants who actually enrolled in law school for the year beginning in Fall 2013.  The ABA explains that:  "The last time enrollment was so low was in 1975, when 39,038 students were enrolled. And, at the time, there were only 163 ABA-accredited schools."

By one blogger's calculation, enrollment (average per law school) has not been this low since the late 1960s.

And, with applications to law school expected to drop this year compared to last, we could expect further erosion of the number of law school enrollees for Fall 2014.

This new data allows us to better predict job equilibrium, which I have discussed here, here, and here.  It is good news for graduates and students who are looking for a job.

The chart, 1L Growth Rate, for the period 1948 to 2013, shows four periods in which law schools showed negative growth in law school enrollees:  about 1949 to 1952; about 1982 to 1986; about 1995 to 1997; and this last one beginning in 2011.  I say "about" because the chart is a little difficult to read when trying to pinpoint specific years.

I'm sure an economist could correlate these dips to changes in the economy.

I notice this.  The magnitude of the negative growth dip for the first and last periods is substantially greater than for the two intervening dips.  The graph suggests that unlike the second and third dips in enrollment, the most recent dip is deeper and potentially longer lasting.

Dec. 27, 2013 Update:  One blogger, Matt Leichter, of the Law School Tuition Bubble blog,  has continued to work with the numbers and published a story in the AmLaw Daily here.

Dec. 28, 2013 Update:  The National Jurist covered the story here.

Oct. 26, 2014 Update:  Analogy to dental school experience in the 1980s  Ongoing decline in applicants expected.

Oct. 26, 2014 Update:  Fewer LSAT takers for Sept/Oct. 2014 test probably means fewer applicants to law school.

Nov. 1, Update:  More on the dental school analogy.