The 12th Al Jazeera Forum: Session 7 - Where is the Gulf Headed?

Political Stability or a New Wave of Change?

On April 28-29, 2018, Al Jazeera held its 12th Forum providing an opportunity for leading scholars and other experts to discuss a variety of topics affecting the Arab world.  The website for the forum, @aljazeeraform, provides additional information and links to the videos of each session.  You can follow the Twitter coverage at #AJForum.

As I noted in my first post in this series, I am working from my notes, so I apologize in advance if I incorrectly paraphrase the remarks of any speaker. I was also reliant on the quality of the translation services and their audibility. Therefore, I am happy to make any needed edits to this summary.

For summaries of the other sessions see:

• Opening Session
• Session 1: The Gulf Crisis
• Session 2: Iran and the Gulf
• Session 3: Change in the Region?
• Session 4: Changing Alliances in the Arab World
• Session 5: Palestine and the "Deal of the Century"
• Session 6: The Media During Times of Crisis

Session 7: Prospective Scenarios Facing the Middle East

Session focus:

This session will review the key ideas discussed in prior sessions from a futuristic perspective.  Where is the Gulf Crisis headed to?  Could the "deal of the century" be a fair solution to and permanent settlement for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

On what basis will the countries destroyed by wars and internal conflicts -- like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya -- be rebuilt if the current regional and international enterprises persist?  Could the countries that witness crisis and social tension maintain their political stability or are we headed toward a new wave of change?

How can the expected scenarios be dealt with?  Will the region develop its own vision for the future or will the region continue to be directed by foreign interests and agendas?

Speakers:

• Moderator: Mohammed Cherkaoui, Professor of Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding at George Mason University's School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution and member of the Center for Narrative and Conflict Resolution.
• Basheer Nafi, Professor of Middle East History and Senior Researcher at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies.
• Mohamed Jemil Ould Mansour, Chairman of the National Rally for Reform and Development in Mauritania (Tawassoul).
• Abdul Aziz Al Ishaq, Qatari journalist at Al Rayn and Columnist at Saqr Magazine.
• Saif Eddin Abdel Fattah, Professor of Political Science specializing in Political Theory and Islamic Political Thought.

Key points:

Basheer Nafi:  The blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt will end, but perhaps not until the end of the year. Created a crisis of trust and confidence.  Reflects US policy in the region.  Iran remains a central concern.

Three factors in play in the region:

• The regional backlash or counter-revolution is at a stalemate.  It stopped democratization of regional governments. 
• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  No one expected this move by the Trump administration and the Palestinian factions did not plan for it.

No one can lead the region through effective alliances.  They are waiting for a new system.  But, it will lead to conflict and instability.

Countires untouched by the Arab Spring have tried to find alliances among themselves and launched counter-revolutions.  But, they could not provide solutions for the people, so the underlying grievances remain.  So, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria are worse off than before the Arab Spring.

At no time previously has the region been this volatile.

Mohamed Jemil Ould Mansour:  Agrees that the region is volatile.  We cannot predict the future.  Nonetheless, the speaker says:

• The Gulf crisis did not achieve the goals of the countries starting the blockade.  Qatar found options and created new alliances.  The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is now form over content.
• The "deal of the century" promised by Trump for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may unfold in stages.
• The crisis in Yemen, Libya, and Syria reflects the interference of outside actors with complicated solutions.
• The counter-revolutions were a failed response to the Arab Spring revolutions.
• The Arab world is "empty."  Instead, you see the influence of Israeli [?], Iran, and Turkey.  Creating a "triangle" of influence.

Abdul Aziz Al Ishaq:  Until April 2017, a diplomatic process existed among the countries of the Gulf.  Will the blockade persist?  If it does, then the "gloomy triangle" of influence evolves into a square with the fourth side now represented by the interference of other countries.

Qatar/Iran relationship exists, but is not as strong as the Qatar/Turkey relationship.   

Crisis will end.  The GCC should persist to:

• support US security.
• counter Iran.
• resolve small problems with unity among six countries. 
• increase relationships between people in affected countries.
• prop up rulers' legitimacy.

Formal solution to the blockade:  International pressure that focuses countries on the Iranian threat through:

• a summit.
• GCC sub-committee creating outreach.

But, the countries will compete perpetually. 

Real solution needed that restore the status quo ante that existed prior to the blockade.  International guarantees from the US, Russia, Europe, or Turkey to ensure a lasting solution.  Should prevent re-occurrence of the blockade.

Saudi Arabia sees Qatar as threat to its legitimacy.

Gulf countries have no real integration, like a common currency.

Inter-GCC conflict may lead to war in Lebanon or Jordan.  Splits conflicts in the region.

The Arab Spring started in Tunisia and will end in the Gulf.

Saif Eddin Abdel Fattah:  A need exists to shape the future.  Three changes have affected the region.  First, the Arab Spring revolutions.  People waited a long time for those events.  Second, the counter-revolutions or backlash occurred.  Third, the underlying factors that led to the revolutions still exist.  Thus, change is inevitable.

Speaker notes that "The Middle East" is not an Arab term.  It reflects the position of the region in relationship to other parts of the world, especially Western powers.

Regional systems are experiencing conflict.  This conflict is evidence of the ongoing move towards change.

After the Arab Spring, "regimes started to tremble."

Speaker calls for a "strategic vision."

"Deal of the century" is not in the interest of the region or its people.  Will meet with strong resistance.  Currently, Palestinians are staging protests every Friday.  The deal sets a bad precedent for other groups subject to colonization.

The Qatar blockade represents "big countries trying to smother a small country."

Q&A:

Arabs have a hard time seeing the Iranian invasion of Iraq and Syria and its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen as innocent.

Iran expanded into Iraq without any cost.  US bore the cost.

West cannot constrain Iran with military intervention.  But, it can limit the flow of dollars into the country.

Turkey is "manufacturing" status by identifying foreign policy opportunities.

Turkey cannot act as a balancing factor to those who opposed the Arab Spring.

Qatar and Turkey can be the center of an alliance that protects the will of the Arab people.

The 12th Al Jazeera Forum: Session 3 - Change in the Region?

A New Arab Spring Fueled by Socio-Economic Factors?

On April 28-29, 2018, Al Jazeera held its 12th Forum providing an opportunity for leading scholars and other experts to discuss a variety of topics affecting the Arab world.  The website for the forum, @aljazeeraform, provides additional information and links to the videos of each session.  You can follow the Twitter coverage at #AJForum.

As I noted in my first post in this series, I am working from my notes, so I apologize in advance if I incorrectly paraphrase the remarks of any speaker. I was also reliant on the quality of the translation services and their audibility. Therefore, I am happy to make any needed edits to this summary.

For summaries of the other sessions see:

• Opening Session
• Session 1: The Gulf Crisis
• Session 2: Iran and the Gulf
• Session 4: Changing Alliances in the Arab World
• Session 5: Palestine and the "Deal of the Century"
• Session 6: The Media During Times of Crisis
• Session 7: Where is the Gulf Headed?

Session 3:  Will socio-economic difficulties in the Arab world explode into a new wave of change in the region?

Session focus:

More than eight years have passed since the beginning of the Arab Spring revolutions.  The main demands of these revolutions were employment, development, and social justice.  However, despite the rapid changes witnessed by the region during these past years, social, and economic conditions are worsening continuously with warnings of new waves of popular movements and protests.  This is also the case in countries in which the movement of change continued to develop, even if it did so at a rough pace, and countries experienced counter-revolutions in the form of military coups, the spread of chaos, and sectarian and tribal conflicts through repeated attempts to restore the status quo.  Even the countries that were not part of the first wave of revolutions seem to be prone to spontaneous social eruptions.  Is the region really advancing towards a new wave of change?  What are the political and geopolitical reflections of this wave of change, should it happen?

Speakers:

• Mohamed Mahoub Haroon, Professor of Social Science at the University of Khartoum.
• Hmoud Al-Olimat, Professor of Sociology at Qatar University.
• Haoues Taguia, Researcher at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies.
• Niccolo Rinaldi, Vice-President for the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and a member of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA).
• Hamed Abdelmajed, Visiting Professor of Political Science at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.

Key points:

Mohamed Mahoub Haroon:  A number of factors contributes to instability in the region.

• Urbanization:
• Increased urban populations.
• More cities.
• Resulting in external migration when people can't find jobs.

• Change in needs:
• Country versus city.
• Youthfulness:
• See here for a discussion of the number of youth in the MENA region.  Fifty percent of the population is younger than 25 years old. 
• Bulge in the number of younger people.
• Links to other factors.

• Retreat from isolation:
• People are interacting with a wider world.
• Creates higher expectations.
• People want more political participation.
• Markets:
• Investors want stable situations.
• Or, they invest in unstable situations.

In the Arab world, all these conditions will exist simultaneously yielding ongoing conflicts in the region.  People will continue to push for political, economic, and social transformation.

Hmoud Al-Olimat: People revolt for many reasons. The desire for dignity and social justice are two important reasons.

Revolt typically leads to a counter-revolt.  But, when people break the barrier of fear, they will continue to pursue their interests.  They are like "seeds."

Counter-revolt is typically worse and more harsh than the status quo ante.  Can ignite the next round of revolt.

The explosion in the youth population creates a need for jobs and a demand for social justice.

All the conditions exist for change in the Arab world.

High unemployment in the Arab region:

• Engenders little hope for new entrants to the labor market.
• Has created a "critical situation."

States should preoccupy their youthful populations with building their countries.

• Otherwise, they will become radicalized.

Education is key. 

Taxes:

• Born by poorer people. 

Haoues Taguia:

Two dynamics in play:

• Needs of the population that must be met for education, jobs, housing, and medical care.
• The state's inability to respond.

Push for change will increase:

• About 358 million people in the Arab world.
• Will increase to 468 million in ten years.

Youth expect a decent life.

• 80 percent of wars happen where youth are 60 percent of the population.
• Region is seeing 20-30 percent unemployment even for educated people.
• 25 percent of those unemployed have advanced degrees.

If oil prices are less than $100/barrel, most Arab states cannot meet the needs of their people.

Arab countries have difficulty attracting business investment because they do not respect the needs of business people.

• Look at how the Saudis used the Ritz Carlton as a prison.

The majority of Arab people do not trust their governments to deliver on their unfulfilled promises.

Speaker does not expect peaceful changes.  Is fear high enough to keep the peace?

Sectarian segregation makes it harder to create one opposition group.  Instead, we see more separatist groups along sectarian lines.

Seeing more intervention in the Arab region by other powers, including Russia and Iran.

Seeing a rise in populism in the US under Trump and in Europe.  Democracy is taking a second seat to security interests.  Western powers do not want to see another Arab Spring.  Too destabilizing for the region [and oil production].  Want stability even if it keeps authoritarian power in place.

Increase in regional violence points to:

• The failure of the Arab Spring.
• The efforts of ISIS.

Military, as governments, can not achieve economic development.  That is one reason they are eventually forced to turn over power.

People can't bear current situation.  Will get even more bleak in the future. 

But, few peaceful options for change exist.

Niccolo Rinaldi: No one predicted the Arab Spring or the war in Syria.  

Once change takes place, governments can halt it temporarily, but it can move forward again.  Change, however, can take time.

Reasons for social discontent exist given large youth population in MENA region.

States allocating very little money for research on the future.  Less than 2 percent in most countries.

No political space exists for change to take place easily.

• Access to political arena is difficult.
• Judicial power is limited.  Cannot assist change with law, orders, and fairness. 

So people create a space in the roads and on social media.

The EU is impressed by:

• Youth who did not oppose older people, but protested with them.
• Cross-border learning among protesters.

Opposition can reactivate quickly even if currently dispersed.

Need inclusive citizenship and rational policy.  Need institutionalized trust and optimism.

Hamed Abdelmajed: Economic and social factors are not enough to create change.  Political and institutional failures created conditions for the Arab Spring.  But, even these failures may not lead to revolutionary change.

The UN list of human rights includes:

• Education
• Housing 
• Food

Loss of human rights may be a better predictor of revolutionary change.

We need to be more humble about predicting change.

Status quo will prevail in the Arab world for some unpredictable time.

• International players support authoritarian governments.
• Regional alliances support authoritarian rule. 
• Authoritarian leaders will fight any effort to change governing systems.
• Institutional memory of harsh counter-revolutions exists.

Accordingly, these circumstances create a dangerous situation.  Will lead to failure of more Arab states.  They will see more economic and social deterioration.  The military will not be able to control it.

Change could come if:

• Military or security institutions are weakened in a state.
• New tools for revolution evolve (social media or something else).
• Groups with an established leadership coalesce away from authorities . 

President Obama supported the Libyan revolution expecting democracy to produce friends in the region.  But then, the rebels killed the US diplomats at Benghazi.

Public support exists for the Arab Spring, but political elite are more cautious because they were friends with the people overthrown.

The West wants to avoid the consequences of these conflicts:

• Refugees.
• Instability in the region.
• Terrorist attacks.

At the same time, speaker does not agree that the West supported the counter-revolution.