The 12th Al Jazeera Forum: Session 7 - Where is the Gulf Headed?

Political Stability or a New Wave of Change?

On April 28-29, 2018, Al Jazeera held its 12th Forum providing an opportunity for leading scholars and other experts to discuss a variety of topics affecting the Arab world.  The website for the forum, @aljazeeraform, provides additional information and links to the videos of each session.  You can follow the Twitter coverage at #AJForum.

As I noted in my first post in this series, I am working from my notes, so I apologize in advance if I incorrectly paraphrase the remarks of any speaker. I was also reliant on the quality of the translation services and their audibility. Therefore, I am happy to make any needed edits to this summary.

For summaries of the other sessions see:

• Opening Session
• Session 1: The Gulf Crisis
• Session 2: Iran and the Gulf
• Session 3: Change in the Region?
• Session 4: Changing Alliances in the Arab World
• Session 5: Palestine and the "Deal of the Century"
• Session 6: The Media During Times of Crisis

Session 7: Prospective Scenarios Facing the Middle East

Session focus:

This session will review the key ideas discussed in prior sessions from a futuristic perspective.  Where is the Gulf Crisis headed to?  Could the "deal of the century" be a fair solution to and permanent settlement for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

On what basis will the countries destroyed by wars and internal conflicts -- like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya -- be rebuilt if the current regional and international enterprises persist?  Could the countries that witness crisis and social tension maintain their political stability or are we headed toward a new wave of change?

How can the expected scenarios be dealt with?  Will the region develop its own vision for the future or will the region continue to be directed by foreign interests and agendas?

Speakers:

• Moderator: Mohammed Cherkaoui, Professor of Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding at George Mason University's School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution and member of the Center for Narrative and Conflict Resolution.
• Basheer Nafi, Professor of Middle East History and Senior Researcher at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies.
• Mohamed Jemil Ould Mansour, Chairman of the National Rally for Reform and Development in Mauritania (Tawassoul).
• Abdul Aziz Al Ishaq, Qatari journalist at Al Rayn and Columnist at Saqr Magazine.
• Saif Eddin Abdel Fattah, Professor of Political Science specializing in Political Theory and Islamic Political Thought.

Key points:

Basheer Nafi:  The blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt will end, but perhaps not until the end of the year. Created a crisis of trust and confidence.  Reflects US policy in the region.  Iran remains a central concern.

Three factors in play in the region:

• The regional backlash or counter-revolution is at a stalemate.  It stopped democratization of regional governments. 
• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  No one expected this move by the Trump administration and the Palestinian factions did not plan for it.

No one can lead the region through effective alliances.  They are waiting for a new system.  But, it will lead to conflict and instability.

Countires untouched by the Arab Spring have tried to find alliances among themselves and launched counter-revolutions.  But, they could not provide solutions for the people, so the underlying grievances remain.  So, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria are worse off than before the Arab Spring.

At no time previously has the region been this volatile.

Mohamed Jemil Ould Mansour:  Agrees that the region is volatile.  We cannot predict the future.  Nonetheless, the speaker says:

• The Gulf crisis did not achieve the goals of the countries starting the blockade.  Qatar found options and created new alliances.  The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is now form over content.
• The "deal of the century" promised by Trump for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may unfold in stages.
• The crisis in Yemen, Libya, and Syria reflects the interference of outside actors with complicated solutions.
• The counter-revolutions were a failed response to the Arab Spring revolutions.
• The Arab world is "empty."  Instead, you see the influence of Israeli [?], Iran, and Turkey.  Creating a "triangle" of influence.

Abdul Aziz Al Ishaq:  Until April 2017, a diplomatic process existed among the countries of the Gulf.  Will the blockade persist?  If it does, then the "gloomy triangle" of influence evolves into a square with the fourth side now represented by the interference of other countries.

Qatar/Iran relationship exists, but is not as strong as the Qatar/Turkey relationship.   

Crisis will end.  The GCC should persist to:

• support US security.
• counter Iran.
• resolve small problems with unity among six countries. 
• increase relationships between people in affected countries.
• prop up rulers' legitimacy.

Formal solution to the blockade:  International pressure that focuses countries on the Iranian threat through:

• a summit.
• GCC sub-committee creating outreach.

But, the countries will compete perpetually. 

Real solution needed that restore the status quo ante that existed prior to the blockade.  International guarantees from the US, Russia, Europe, or Turkey to ensure a lasting solution.  Should prevent re-occurrence of the blockade.

Saudi Arabia sees Qatar as threat to its legitimacy.

Gulf countries have no real integration, like a common currency.

Inter-GCC conflict may lead to war in Lebanon or Jordan.  Splits conflicts in the region.

The Arab Spring started in Tunisia and will end in the Gulf.

Saif Eddin Abdel Fattah:  A need exists to shape the future.  Three changes have affected the region.  First, the Arab Spring revolutions.  People waited a long time for those events.  Second, the counter-revolutions or backlash occurred.  Third, the underlying factors that led to the revolutions still exist.  Thus, change is inevitable.

Speaker notes that "The Middle East" is not an Arab term.  It reflects the position of the region in relationship to other parts of the world, especially Western powers.

Regional systems are experiencing conflict.  This conflict is evidence of the ongoing move towards change.

After the Arab Spring, "regimes started to tremble."

Speaker calls for a "strategic vision."

"Deal of the century" is not in the interest of the region or its people.  Will meet with strong resistance.  Currently, Palestinians are staging protests every Friday.  The deal sets a bad precedent for other groups subject to colonization.

The Qatar blockade represents "big countries trying to smother a small country."

Q&A:

Arabs have a hard time seeing the Iranian invasion of Iraq and Syria and its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen as innocent.

Iran expanded into Iraq without any cost.  US bore the cost.

West cannot constrain Iran with military intervention.  But, it can limit the flow of dollars into the country.

Turkey is "manufacturing" status by identifying foreign policy opportunities.

Turkey cannot act as a balancing factor to those who opposed the Arab Spring.

Qatar and Turkey can be the center of an alliance that protects the will of the Arab people.

12th Al Jazeera Forum: Session 4 - Changing Alliances in the Region

Where is the Middle East Heading?

On April 28-29, 2018, Al Jazeera held its 12th Forum providing an opportunity for leading scholars and other experts to discuss a variety of topics affecting the Arab world.  The website for the forum, @aljazeeraform, provides additional information and links to the videos of each session.  You can follow the Twitter coverage at #AJForum.

As I noted in my first post in this series, I am working from my notes, so I apologize in advance if I incorrectly paraphrase the remarks of any speaker. I was also reliant on the quality of the translation services and their audibility. Therefore, I am happy to make any needed edits to this summary.

For summaries of the other sessions see:

• Opening Session
• Session 1: The Gulf Crisis
• Session 2: Iran and the Gulf
• Session 3: Change in the Region?
• Session 5: Palestine and the "Deal of the Century"
• Session 6: The Media During Times of Crisis
• Session 7: Where is the Gulf Headed?

Session 4: The Middle East Amid Changing Regional and Global Alliances

Session focus:

The crises and conflicts that erupted during the past numbers of years -- with the Gulf crisis being the most recent -- cover almost the entire Middle East, creating a high level of political and strategic liquidity.  Accordingly, relations between the region's countries have witnessed great changes, thus reshaping the features of the general scene and forming regional and global alliances that will not settle on a final form in the near future.  Rapid changes rocking the Middle East hinder stability, increase sources of threat, and make current regional and global alliances temporary and fragile arrangements open to all options.  Where is the Middle East heading amid these transformations and changing alliances?

Speakers:

• Abdullah Al Shayji, Chairman of the Department of Political Science at Kuwait University.
• Galip Dalay, Research Director at Al Sharq Forum and Senior Associate Fellow at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies.
• Mohamad Hosam Hafez, Assistant Professor at the College of Law at Qatar University.
• Elahe Kolaie, Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Central Eurasia Research Department Centre at the University of Tehran.
• Leonid Issaev, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Political Science at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow. 

Key points:

Abdullah Al Shayji:  Even though 400 million Arabs exist, power does not reside in their hands.  They engage in little joint action.

America's retreat from the region during the Obama administration was very disappointing.  It allowed the increasing role of Russia.

A cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia started when the Saudi embassy was attacked in 2016.   [See here and here for more information. And, this video does a good job explaining the cold war and the proxy wars in the region.  It suggests this rivalry began much earlier than 2016.]  

Iran claims to control the capitals of four Arab countries. 

Some people hope that Salman's rise to King of Saudi Arabia, Trump's election, and the formation of a 40 country Arab union could be a new beginning for the region.  But, that hope was dashed when members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)  turned on Qatar and imposed a blockade. 

Until recently, the GCC served as a model for Arab unity.  It served as a leader.  But that is no longer true and its diminished situation is "very painful" for Arabs.  

Turkey, Russia, and Iran, rather than Arabs, are controlling the future of Syria. 

Trump has made the situation more complex.  He is the first American president outside the political establishment.  He is "moody" and "transactional."  He creates a lot of concern among regional political leaders.

The US presence in the Gulf costs American taxpayers nothing.  But, Trump wants the region to pay more for its security.  

In comparison, Israel costs US taxpayers $3 billion [a year].  Moving the embassy to Jerusalem adds insult to injury.  

The US is now producing more oil than Saudi Arabia.  But, the world still needs stability in the Arab world.

It is not likely that North Korea will denuclearize.  Iran is watching.  Where is the nuclear deal heading?

• US withdrawal from the deal could be the "best, worst option" because it does not cover ballistic missiles, geopolitical expansion, or Iran's support for terrorism.
• Alarm bells should ring in the Arab world. War is possible. 

Turkey and Iran both have national ambitions that extend beyond their borders.  What about Arab ambitions?

A new Middle Eastern order may emerge, but Arabs will be weaker.  Many Arab countries are fragile or failed states not capable of delivering services to their people.  

Galip Dalay:

Speaker has seen a shift to discourse about "national security," but it covers a "regional or network security," too. 

Yet, this push creates regional insecurity because by imposing demands on a neighbor to bolster a country's security, the second country impinges on the sovereignty of the first country.

Who is a terrorist?

• In some countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Syria, the term covers political opposition.  Thus, the war on terror is problematic.

Alliances driven by fear rather than a shared vision:

• The authoritarian group: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, and US via Trump.
• Drive for a new regional order because the Arab Spring created regime anxiety.
• Political Islam is deemed an intolerable "other."
• But, national security depends on US.
• Iranian network:  Asad's Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi government, and Houthi government.
• More coherence.
• More network security.
• But creating more regional backlash with more instability.
• Turkey & Qatar:
• Supported Arab Spring.
• Qatar must now focus on its own national security instead of its foreign policy.

Each group is exclusive of the other groups.  So, they create more instability with counter-responses.

They are all trying to maximize their own national security or network security.

The challenge is to turn network security into regional security.

Mohamad Hosam Hafez:  When the post-World War boundaries of Arab countries were drawn, the Arab people were not consulted.  These boundaries laid the seeds of conflict.  Most of the state boundaries are not validated by international law.

Challenges:

• New way of dealing with existing countries.
• Non-state actors.

Alliances between countries are fragile and prone to change.

• Temporary understandings.
• Not creating long-term alliances to serve joint interests.
• Even though GCC was a promising model, current events undermining it to the point of breaking it up or marginalizing its role in the region. 

Democracy should support people and allow them an easier way to change leaders.  But, post-Arab Spring, we saw governments blocking the actions of the people seeking change.  Cannot ignore people's desires.  They were political actors, despite counter-revolution. 

Even alliances in Syria seem short-term with Russia exploiting resources of oil and phosphate. 

Non-state actors:  If a strong security alliance had existed in Syria, ISIS would not have found a weakness to enter.

Elahe Kolaie: Arms race has occurred in the Arab region.  It has become an important purchaser of weapons in the last decade. 

States in the region do not use soft power effectively through dialogue and direct interaction.  Enhancing diplomatic actions would benefit everyone.

Democratization is an important issue.  Could change the dynamics of power politics.

US policy deprives Iran of the mutual benefits of the the region through expanded relationships with neighboring countries on both Eastern and Western borders.  It could serve as a stabilizing force, but that has been a missed opportunity. 

Iran seeks a regional dialogue. 

Leonid Issaev: The region is undergoing a reconfiguration.  The previous order collapsed after the 2011 Arab Spring.

New rules of the game and security architectures exist.  Question is whether they are created within the region or by outside actors.

Regional actors need to create agenda for region.  Policy now is very personalized. States tend to solve problems in most radical ways.

Global actors are not that interested in solving the problems of the Middle East.  That's a problem.

• See Yemen humanitarian crisis.  Just try to organize an event about it, and the room will be empty.
• Russians are not interested in discussing Middle East problems unless they have a nexus with US policy or actions.

Instead, global actors will use Middle East conflicts to serve their own interests.

No focus exists on reconciliation or disarmament.

Russians achieved short-term gains for Syrian regime, but no long-term gains for Syrian people.

No one outside the region has any solution for the Middle East problems, and they cannot create order in the region. 

Q & A:

Mood now reflects Iran's move towards hegemony at the expense of Arabs.  Iran is playing a negative role in the region.  May put other countries at risk.

In the absence of political leadership and a robust civil society, who can solve problems of the region?

Summary: Disorder.  Iranian intervention. Turkey's ambition.

Iran quickly sent snipers and weapons into Syria.  Hard to see Iran's interventions in Syria as enhancing regional security.

In the middle of a big turmoil, can we produce a new generation of problem-solvers?  Probably not.  They are raised by expat maids, [over]use technology, and have no dreams or aspirations. [Ouch.]

US is trying to impose tough diplomacy in connection with the Iranian nuclear deal.  

Syria is now split in four zones:  American, Russian, Iranian, and Turkish.  Does this represent the new paradigm in the Middle East? 

The 12th Al Jazeera Forum -- Session 2: Iran and the Gulf

Iran and the Gulf: Between Cooperation, Competition, and Confrontation

On April 28-29, 2018, Al Jazeera held its 12th Forum providing an opportunity for leading scholars and other experts to discuss a variety of topics affecting the Arab world.  The website for the forum, @aljazeeraform, provides additional information and links to the videos of each session.  You can follow the Twitter coverage at #AJForum.

As I noted in my first post in this series, I am working from my notes, so I apologize in advance if I incorrectly paraphrase the remarks of any speaker. I was also reliant on the quality of the translation services and their audibility. Therefore, I am happy to make any needed edits to this summary.

For summaries of the other sessions see:

• Opening Session
• Session 1: The Gulf Crisis
• Session 3: Change in the Region?
• Session 4: Changing Alliances in the Arab World
• Session 5: Palestine and the "Deal of the Century"
• Session 6: The Media During Times of Crisis
• Session 7: Where is the Gulf Headed?

Session 2: Iran and the Gulf Between Cooperation, Competition, and Confrontation.

Session focus

While Iran has surfaced as one of the main elements of the current Gulf Crisis, its relations with Arab Gulf countries were turbulent and dominated by mutual tension and suspicion rather than cooperation and common action for many decades.  Crisis in various parts of the Middle East have exposed the features of the tension, which has escalated at times to military conflict.  Due to the amount and scope of regional crises, the possibility of resolution is unforeseeable.  Troubled relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors will remain an essential factor of instability and a source of threat to the region's security, development, and prosperity.  Will it be possible for the hostile relations and power struggle to become friendly relations based on cooperation, coordination, and work toward common regional destiny? 

Background and context:

• Trump administration policy on Iran:  here.

Speakers:

• Kayhan Barzegar, Director of the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies (CMESS) in Tehran.
• Abdullah Basil Hussein, Deputy Director of the Iraqi Center for Research and Strategic Studies in Amman.
• Abdul Karim Aslami, Yemeni parliamentarian
• Fatima Alsmadi, Senior Researcher at Al Jazeera Center for Studies and the Head of Iranian Studies.
• Boris Zala, Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. 

Key Points:

Kayhan Barzegar:  Iran does not have a political point of view, but instead, a geopolitical point of view. Region is bringing problems to Iran, which is responding to protect its national security.  

• Presence of US military bases in the region are perceived threatening.
• Also feel threatened by Israel.

No debate exists inside Iran about whether it should be involved regionally.  Debate may exist over how to be involved.  

Nuclear deal created expectation that US and other parties would quit meddling in Iran.

• Expected it to lesson Western anxiety.
• But, it has left Western powers with desire to change the deal.

Coercive diplomacy via sanctions won't work to change Iran's role in regional issues.

When Iran is strong in the region, Saudi Arabia is weaker. When regional states are stronger in the region, Iran is weaker.  Each country needs more internal stability and power.  Then, it will contribute to regional stability.  

Abdullah Basil Hussein:  The burden of history defines the relationship between Iran and Arabs.  They view each other as competitors, not cooperators.

• Iraqi-Iran war is an example.
• Persian dominance of the region is another.

Moreover, they are isolated from each other.

• Arabs know little about the intellectual culture of Iran.

Why is little cooperation possible?  When moderates arise in Iran, you see agreements.

Iraq has no unity of decision-making and has distanced itself from the Qatari crisis.

If US pulls out of nuclear deal, following options are possible:

• War
• Status quo
• Regional organization of Turkey, Iran, and GCC, but Iran must abandon its revolutionary expansion and relate to other countries as a "state."

Abdul Karim Aslami:  Saudi Arabia and UAE seek hegemony in the region, especially in Yemen.  Iran's national and religious interests are manifesting in Yemen.  Yemen has no interest in the conflict, but it serves as the battleground for the conflict between larger states in the region.

Persian kings sought Yemeni help in Abyssinia (Ethiopia) until Islam rose.  

Iran sought an opportunity to enter Yemen.  It was strategic, when Arabs' response was not. 

Saudi Arabia wants Yemen to be subservient to it.  

Yemen was not included as a member in the GCC, although it later participated in some committees. 

UAE wants military ports on the coast of Yemen.  Saudi Arabia wants passage for oil exports.  

In 2004, the Yemeni government accused Iran of supporting the Houthis.  Houthis executed a coup in 2011. Iran then provided them military, financial, and media support.  Saudi Arabia invaded in 2015.

Fatima Alsmadi: The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is geopolitical, not religious.  It existed before the Iranian revolution.  It was a confrontation over oil.

The biggest problem is one of distrust.  Requires proactive diplomacy that explores and supports common interests. Any possible solution rests on finding and satisfying those interests.

If Trump "destroys" the nuclear agreement:

• The region will experience greater insecurity.
• Iran will take action.
• Could resume uranium enrichment.
• Could walk away from the agreement with the other parties (minority view).

What does Iran want from the Gulf?  It knows what it wants and doesn't want.

Does the GCC know what it wants from Iran?  No.

From the US policy perspective: Iran can be more powerful than the Arabs, but it cannot be more powerful than Israel.  

Since 2009, Iran has seen convergence between the state and the supreme revolutionary power.

Boris Zala:  Speaking from a European perspective, the region is focused on geopolitical games. 

• How do you get the players out of this dynamic?  Out of this vicious cycle?

The region always involves the US and its threat of war.

The EU is not a military power.  It was created to overcome the geopolitical games of European states.  In the past, France and Germany were the regional super powers, with other countries hosting proxy wars.  Religious competition between Protestants and Catholics also played a role.  Competition between conservatives and progressives played a role. 

The EU is skeptical the Arab region can find a solution to ongoing tensions.

• Would need to subjugate individual rivalries to create peaceful cooperation.
• States typically impose that peaceful cooperation by agreement or regulation, but a functioning state does not exist in Yemen, Libya, Syria, or Iraq.